With just weeks before the November General Election, the latest round of poll numbers have emerged for statewide races in Kentucky. According to the CN/2 poll release this week, Incumbent Steve Beshear is maintaining a 28 point lead over Republican David Williams. Beshear has been criticized heavily by the GOP and others around the state for not taking part in more debates, but his no confrontation strategy seems to be working just fine. In the only face-to-face meeting with Williams and Independent Gatewood Galbraith, Beshear came off as a little smug and Williams really did win the day. But, Williams doesn’t have nearly enough money to make up such a deficit.
It’s not just the Governor’s race that seems to be all Democratic either. In the race for Attorney General, incumbent Jack Conway has opened up a nearly 30 point lead on GOP challenger Todd P’Pool. But there is a pool of undecideds at around 17 percent.
In the race for Auditor things are a little tighter with Democrat Adam Edelen showing a nine point lead on John Kemper. But, a whopping 32 percent remain undecided there.
Democrat Allison Lundergran-Grimes has a 10 point lead over Bill Johnson. But again, the undecideds come in at a gigantic 35 percent figure. That is likely to shrink as Grimes begins to run a heavy TV schedule leading up to the election.
Incumbent Todd Hollenbach maintains a nearly 27 point lead on K.C. Crosbie in the run for Treasurer, while Democrat Bob Farmer shows a 16 point lead in the race for Ag Commissioner over James Comer.
Why do the Democrats seem to be poised for a sweep? Hard to say, but it could be a number of things. One could be Tea Party backlash–buyers remorse if you will–Seeing the some of the candidates elected last year aren’t really living up to expectations. It’s worth noting that when David Williams was running against Tea Partier Phil Moffett in the GOP Primary, Williams labeled himself as a Tea Party candidate too. That kind of talk has been absent from the general election cycle. Another undeniable reason could be a weak top-of-the-ticket. Williams is impressive as can be in the State Senate, but his somewhat bullying style doesn’t play well on the campaign trail, and it’s showing.
I’ve heard a little grumbling about this poll being weighted too heavily toward Democratic voters, and that does seem to be true. But it mirrors earlier results that have been weighted to the GOP side, so that argument is moot. If these numbers hold, the really interesting elections will be in 2012. Not in the Presidential race, but in legislative and senate races. It could be a real catalyst for Democrats to finally take power in the state senate. There may never be a better shot for them than 2012.
