Trying to Decipher a Tough Kentucky Derby – The Pick is Bodemeister

Bodemeister is the pick

In trying to make selections for today’s Kentucky Derby, the key factor seems to be the pace of the race.  The late addition of Trinniberg to the field completely changed the complexion of the race, and a muddy racetrack would throw another wrench into how the race will likely unfold.

Trinniberg comes into the Derby off two sharp sprint scores, but he has never raced around two turns.  He will most likely be first when the field hits the first turn, and the pace will likely be fast.  Hansen also has quite a bit of early speed, and has been a bit rank when working out in the mornings, refusing to rate.  If that is the case, look for these two to be in front early.  It is extremely doubtful that Trinniberg will finish anywhere near the front, the question is just how far he will go before he begins to fade.

Perhaps the biggest question in the year’s Derby is whether or not the extremely talented Bodemeister will rate off this hot pace.  If so, he is a huge threat to win the race.  However, he lacks the seasoning of most of the runners and may resent being restrained early.  If this is the case, it is hard to see him winning.

Sitting just behind the early speed should be Union Rags, Gemologist, and Take Charge Indy.  Union Rags, who will be the first or second choice in the wagering, is certainly a threat to win.  Gemologist is undefeated, but one has to question the quality of rivals he has beaten to this point.  Take Charge Indy has one great race in his past performances, but that was when he got loose on the lead and set easy fractions in the Florida Derby.  One has to think Calvin Borel will try to guide him up the rail.

The third flight of Horses will probably include Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another, El Padrino, Alpha, and Went The Day Well.  Getting through traffic will be key for these Horses.  Creative Cause and I’ll Have Another ran neck and neck down the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby, but today they will have to contend with a huge field.  Mario Guiterrez, the jockey of I’ll Have Another is riding in his first Kentucky Derby, and how he navigates the large field will be key to his Horses chances. Alpha was taken up sharply around the first turn in the Wood Memorial, but still almost came back to defeat Gemologist. Went The Day Well has the same connections as last year’s winner, Animal Kingdom and followed the same path to get to Churchill Downs, but he does not seem to have the maturity Animal Kingdom had at this point last year.

Many times in recent years a hot early pace in the Derby has led to a longshot coming from far back to win at huge odds.  Who can forget Mine That Bird and Giacomo?  Today two Horses seem to have a great chance when coming from far behind, Dullahan and Daddy Nose Best.  Dullahan made a huge late run to win the Bluegrass Stakes in his last start, and is ridden by three time Kentucky Derby winner Kent Desormeaux. The only hole in his resume is that he has never won a race on a dirt track; all his wins are on synthetic surfaces.  A muddy racetrack would probably improve his chances.  Daddy Nose Best won the Sunland Derby in his last start, and he showed a powerful burst of energy very late in the race.  He certainly has a chance to win today at a nice price.

Putting it all together, here are the selections for today:

  1. Bodemeister
  2. Union Rags
  3. Daddy Nose Best

Super Longshot Special – El Padrino.

Good luck to all today.